How should investors think about energy security in a world where trade routes, supply chains, and national policy are becoming more closely linked? In this episode, we explain how geopolitics are impacting energy markets, including why the Middle East war is creating risks for companies and consumers but also leading to new cross-sector opportunities for investors.
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Sean Kenney:

Hi, I'm Sean Kenney and welcome to the MFS All Angles podcast. We recently published our midyear key themes for 2026, and one of the new themes we've highlighted is what we're calling the umbrella of security. Defense spending is accelerating globally, and the conflict in the Middle East has amplified the attention on the role energy plays as a matter of national security. It also raises a broader question, how should investors think about energy security in a world where trade routes, supply chains, and national policy are becoming more closely linked? So, to discuss this and more, I'm joined by two members of our energy sector team, Jeff Wakelin, who's a fixed income research analyst, and Omar Hashem, who's a member of the equity research team. So, Omar, Jeff, thanks for joining me today.

Omar Hashem:

Thanks for having us.

Jeff Wakelin:

Thanks for having us.

Sean Kenney:

So, I want to start right in with the why now, because when you look at the conflict in the Middle East, some might look at that as a regional conflict, but I think what's becoming increasingly obvious is it is a global energy security issue, which is really driving, I think, a lot of the headlines and the geopolitics around what's happening in the Middle East. It makes me think back a couple of years ago to when Russia invaded the Ukraine, and there was a lot of narrative around energy security in Europe, and that kicked off a lot of conversation and news flow around that. So, why is this different? Why is the Middle Eastern conflict and the Strait of Hormuz different than other energy implications from other past history?

Jeff Wakelin:

Well, it's different in a couple of different ways. When the Ukrainian conflict started, it had implications for Europe and the flow of gas, which was largely Russian into Europe. So, from a security perspective and energy security perspective, clearly Europe's reliance on Russia became highlighted. That was however reasonably easily dealt with, and so the United States has ended up sending much more gas to Europe, which resolved that particular situation. Whereas the Strait of Hormuz is a much more strategic artery, it has real implications for shipping, over one fifth of the global oil production flows through the Strait of Hormuz. And so, when the United States started the conflict to try and change Iranian behavior, Iran immediately closed the Strait of Hormuz, which has actually never happened before.

This obviously impacted energy markets quite dramatically given the fact that 20% of oil was not flowing, and this is a vital artery for the flow of that production, which ultimately has a pretty dramatic effect on the global economy.

Sean Kenney:

Okay. And Omar, from your perspective, anything unique or new about this environment from an equity perspective?

Omar Hashem:

Yeah, I think maybe to give a different framing, the way I viewed it as I saw that this conflict was just a continuation of a series of events that we saw over the past number of years, that maybe really highlighted the structural changes that are taking place in terms of energy, not just energy, but trade and security order globally. And so, I think even if you go further back, we saw obviously the pandemic and COVID and what that did to supply chains globally, you saw Russia, Ukraine, a little bit more recently, you saw kind of US tariffs and what that did to a lot of the countries that import into the US, and now, you have this conflict, which has more direct ramifications for the energy trade market. But I think you can draw through line through all those events, and just maybe see that there are more structural underlying factors that are changing in terms of the global security and trade order, and that impacts energy, especially during this one, just because of the significance of Hormuz.

Sean Kenney:

Yeah. Well, one of the things I would imagine our listeners are wrestling with is how this impacts the price of oil. And obviously one of the big things in the news is the price of oil, and is the strait going to be open? Is it going to be closed? And how does that impact the price of oil? And when I think about the price of something, I think of supply and demand, and it appears to me that the supply and demand implications here certainly impact pricing but impact longer term pricing as well. In the near term, as we look at in the next three to six months, what are you seeing as short term implications, and how are supply and demand dynamics impacting what you see?

Jeff Wakelin:

Well, there have been a number of supply constraints and supply shocks over the years. Early in the '70s when Middle East decided not to send oil to the United States, that was one. The strait being shut down immediately has a number of implications, the first, those countries that don't have energy independence and who are reliant on that flow of petroleum through the Strait of Hormuz are immediately impacted. And so, the supply strangulation of closing off the Hormuz highlights the necessity of energy. And as a result of that, those countries that have energy independence are in a much different position. The secondary response to that was immediately the West started releasing strategic petroleum reserves, and have drawn down those reserves quite dramatically over the last 115 days since the strait has been closed. The West has drawn down about 200 million barrels a day, China had to curtail purchases of oil to the tune of about four million barrels a day, which accounts for almost 800 million barrels as well.

And so, if you think about it, the closure of the strait has strangled 1.5 to two billion barrels, which is ultimately approximately four to five million barrels a day of potential supply, which has pretty broad implications for the price of oil. And so, price of oil obviously reacted quite negatively, going up to over $100 a barrel. Since then, it's come back down as a result of the potential deal that we're going to see in the next 60 days, but we think that over time it's going to take much longer for shipping channels to recalibrate and go back to normal. We also think that there's going to be an overhang of potential closure. Is it going to remain open? Is it going to remain closed? Is there going to be a fee associated with transit? All of that has supply/demand dynamics that we believe are going to impact the short term price of oil for the foreseeable future.

Sean Kenney:

So, there's pent-up demand that may last longer than just a few months, from what you're talking about, but then also the implications of diversifying the global supply chain of oil outside of the strait creates more uncertainty, both near term and longer term. Is that fair?

Jeff Wakelin:

Quite fair, yes.

Sean Kenney:

Yeah. So, Omar, I feel like consistently when there's news about the strait opening or closing, the equity markets move pretty dramatically. Is that justified? How do you think about that as an equity investor?

Omar Hashem:

Yeah. I think the volatility tells you a few things. I think A, it tells you that the market is struggling to price in new information, and is having just as difficult of a time that a lot of us as analysts have, pricing and information immediately because it takes time to actually understand the underlying realities. And headlines don't always reflect the reality of the situation on the ground. I think number two is when you asked your question to Jeff earlier, just the distinction between spot pricing and equities are discounted cash flows. And so, thinking further out beyond just what is the spot price today versus yesterday, and thinking, what's the implication for the cash flow of the producers over the next few years?

And so, this is where I think there's an important distinction to make, where a lot of the volatility has occurred at the front end of the curve, and especially on the spot price, but I think if you look out further on the curve and you actually look at where we are today after headlines of MOU progress and potential peace deal versus pre-war, on a one and two year basis, the oil prices are still about $5 higher than they were entering the war. And so, I think that tells you a couple different things. Number one is, as Jeff mentioned, there's a lot of strategic reserves that have been drawn down. Those need to be rebuilt.

So, there's a demand pad there that's going to support the demand side of the equation. And then number two, there's also potentially an overhang and a remaining geopolitical premium in terms of uncertainty if this is actually the end of the conflict, or if there's potential down the road for a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz again, again, this is unprecedented, never happened before. Now everybody needs to factor in the fact that this is actually a possibility that could occur down the road again if there's a resumption of hostilities.

Sean Kenney:

Yeah. So, there's a lot of short term dynamics happening here, and I would imagine as long term investors, we're trying to sift through the short term noise or maybe short term implications with the longer term investment thesis and opportunities. So, Omar, maybe starting with you on the equity side, I've heard you talk about the energy trilemma, can you share a little bit about that with our listeners and talk about how you think about that framework as a long term investor?

Omar Hashem:

Yeah. So, I didn't invent this framework so I can't take credit for it, but I think it's from the World Energy Council, and it's a very useful framework for thinking about energy investment and how countries think about where to put capital. And really what it says is generally speaking, you pick two of the three, you can't have all three. And so, you have energy affordability, you have energy security, and then you have energy sustainability. And if you think back a few years and the regime we were in, there was a large focus on overweighting that sustainability point, right? I think the world that we're entering now is starting to realize that security actually needs to be reprioritized because of the risks and the geopolitical shifts that we're seeing. And so, I think that has a lot of implications for the investment environment and the opportunities that we assess, but it also I think looks very different country by country, right?

And so, I think energy security means different things for different countries, and as Jeff alluded to earlier, there's certain countries that are very fossil fuel rich, and have opportunities to maybe continue extracting or accelerate extraction of that and leveraging that, and then there are countries who are importers that were the most hurt by this particular disruption. And maybe those countries look at things like accelerating electrification, or could also be a combination of building more storage and returning those strategic reserves, not just to where they were, but potentially building in even more.

It could also be things like in the very short term, keeping coal plants on for longer. Again, you saw that during this crisis, right? Because you need energy, and it doesn't matter how you get it, and sustainability maybe falls behind in terms of the prioritization of how you think about this trade off. So, a lot of moving parts really varies by region and varies by the available opportunity set.

Sean Kenney:

Okay. We can clearly unpack that a little bit more as we go. But Jeff, from a fixed income perspective, duration is a really important component of what you all are evaluating on your side.

Jeff Wakelin:

Sure.

Sean Kenney:

How do you think about duration in this environment?

Jeff Wakelin:

Well, I think the one thing that this event has actually caused to happen is the duration of assets as well as the terminal value of those assets has changed dramatically. As Omar mentioned previously, there was a lot of focus on sustainability because we weren't sure whether or not energy was going to be around, or oil was going to be utilized, and how far into the future was going to be utilized. With this particular conflict, what it has shown is that the world is very dependent on energy, and the disruption of any energy has brought implications not only for the global economy, but also for the way that each of the individual country economies operate.

I would say that it has highlighted the asset value of the oil in place for most of these companies, it's also extended the terminal value to a much greater extent, such that cash flows will be around longer than we had previously thought. Which makes the companies better equity stories, it makes them better credit stories because we don't necessarily have to worry about the duration of the assets and lending further than the duration of those assets are available to us. And so, it has changed, I think the dynamic for both the equity and the fixed income market.

Sean Kenney:

Okay. So, that's a good baseline and foundation for us to maybe dig a little bit deeper into security selection. Both of you spend a large majority of your time looking at issuers and credits and identifying winners and losers for our clients. In this environment, as you think about these long term investment decisions, how do you go about separating the shorter term noise, and maybe some short term winners in this environment, from truly long term winners and maybe those that can over cross cycle benefit from these dynamics? Maybe Omar, I can start with you.

Omar Hashem:

Yeah. I think the starting point for me is just from a commodity perspective is respecting the capital cycle and understanding that markets will find a way to rebalance and return to an equilibrium at some point in time. Obviously that might not be immediate, but outsized returns and commoditized markets are not persistent for a long duration. So, that's a good axiom to just start off with and understand on the commodity side. But I think of the opportunity set that I'm seeing as three large buckets. The first one is one that Jeff touched on, is just the duration piece. And so, I think on the commodity side, deeper duration of inventory is becoming more appreciated, and especially when it's in secure jurisdictions, and it's becoming more valued, not just by financial investors, but also strategic investors and seeing that in M&A play out.

And so, just to throw out one example, I'm from Canada, the Canadian oil signs is one example of that, right? Where you have multi-decade long reserves, and for a long time, those companies were trading at a discount or at the very least not a premium to some of the corresponding peers. Now, you're seeing people value that depth more given the combination of the security element but also the duration element that Jeff pointed out. The second area that I think about is, to your point, trying to think about the more enduring impacts of this specific shock, and what it means not just to spot prices or a year out commodity prices, but thinking beyond that.

And I think what you want to look at there is thinking about the parts of the value chain that perhaps have a little bit of a longer lead time in terms of having the supply response required to return to that equilibrium. And so, if you draw the comparison between the refining or the LNG complex versus crude oil, we heard from the IEA that there's something like 80 facilities that have been damaged in this conflict, that will take time to rebuild, you saw Qatar damage on their LNG facilities, that are going to take multiple years, according to them, to bring back on, and there's not a lot of refining capacity globally that's slated to come on in the next one in two years. So, potentially you could see those areas bolstered and earn outsized returns until the supply response actually happens, versus perhaps shorter cycle oil production that can sometimes come on in weeks or months.

The third area that I'd highlight is, even longer term, is thinking about the potential energy infrastructure build. Again, there's that shorter term opportunity even there's some damaged facility, but we need to think even beyond that. And when we talk about security and how countries are thinking about the required resiliency they need to bake into their supply chains to avoid being as impacted the next time around something like this happens, that could be a multi, multi-year opportunity for a lot of companies. And again, it's going to look different across regions, and it's going to impact different sub-industries, but that might be midstream pipelines, storage facilities, might even be things that touch electrification and electric power. That actually overlaps with some of the AI themes that you're seeing now.

Sean Kenney:

Yeah, right.

Omar Hashem:

So, that area could get really tight and some of those producers that play in those areas of picks and shovels might have a lot of pricing power because of that tightness. So, again, these are all things that you need to assess bottom up and I think that's part of the benefit of the platform, and being able to work together to identify those specific opportunities. But if I had to bucket them, those are the three areas.

Sean Kenney:

Yeah, that's a helpful context. And Jeff, anything from your side on the fixed income side?

Jeff Wakelin:

Cash flow is really important for us, we don't get paid back unless there's good, strong cash flow. So, as Omar mentioned, security, safety are important things to factor in now, and certainly safety of supply and jurisdictional safety really adds a lot of value at this point in a way that it hasn't in the past, I would say. And so, focusing on those areas as well as all of the areas that Omar spoke about with respect to infrastructure and whatnot, and then ultimately balance sheet and how the balance sheet would be impacted by all of this environment continues to be super important for the fixed income side.

Sean Kenney:

Okay. You both have coverage in the energy sector, for companies and securities in the energy sector, but let's talk about some of the second and third order impacts of energy, because as we were talking earlier, energy impacts virtually every sector and industry in some way. So, as you think about sitting on the integrated research platform that we have, you have your coverage and I'm sure you work very closely together as a team, and with the broader energy sector team, but what are some of the implications as you're talking to your colleagues in other industries and other sectors, what are some of those implications? How is energy impacting consumers and different companies and different industries? Omar, maybe I'll start with you.

Omar Hashem:

Yeah. So, I think there's the direct and there's the indirect, right? So, the direct is certain parts of my coverage that are heavy energy intensive companies because of manufacturing operations or freight and things like that, you definitely see it in the way that the stocks are trying to react to that information, and the higher cost base that's embedded in there, and it's definitely a negative for a lot of those companies. And then there's the indirect, and there's higher energy price means higher inflation, means potentially higher rates. And so, rate sensitive sectors tend to have that negative correlation when there's big energy price shocks like this one. So, you see it in a couple different ways, but I'd argue energy touches almost every sector. It's not always direct, sometimes indirect, and some are more or less insulated from it, but I think it's something that increasingly investors, even in different sectors, are at least starting to key into and pay attention to.

Sean Kenney:

Yeah. Jeff, from your side, what do you see?

Jeff Wakelin:

Well, the interesting thing is that all of the themes that we've talked about here flow through the global economy, and ultimately at the end of the day affect the global consumer. And so, if you think about it, the most notable way that it's impacted consumers is the price at the pump. You hear a lot about that, there's a lot in the news about that, obviously lots written about that. But it also impacts the consumer in a number of different ways. So, if you think of, for instance, jet fuel, jet fuel impacts airline pricing, it obviously impacts the profitability of airlines as well. Bunker fuel impacts shipping, and it also impacts cruise lines, and so costs go up in the shipping and for cruise lines as well. But it's also in household items, in cosmetics, in threads, and so it is broadly impactful for the global consumer in a multitude of ways that the market doesn't necessarily always think about or realize.

It's in healthcare, it's in medical supplies, sports and leisure goods. All of these things impact the global consumer and their ability to consume them has gone up as a result of the fluctuations that you see in the oil space. So, all of these things have broad implications for global economy and certainly the inflation aspect has an impact on interest rates, which ultimately cause borrowing costs to go up. And so, all of these factors have brought implications for the global economy and certainly to the extent that you see a retracement back to closure, or we revert back to shipping disruptions, the longer that goes on, the more it has an impact on the global economy, could potentially cause a recession. And so, factoring in all of those things from a fixed income perspective, but also from an equity perspective are what we are talking about in the global sector team all the time.

Sean Kenney:

Yeah. Well, maybe I'll close with more of an optimistic question because a lot of the times in the energy space, we're talking about the Middle East conflict, we're talking about the strait closing and opening, and the geopolitics of it all. But what excites you about the energy space right now? Because I would imagine as investors where there's uncertainty, there's opportunity, and you're likely looking at the opportunity set and finding things that excite you. What excites you right now? Maybe Jeff, I'll start with you.

Jeff Wakelin:

Well, I think first of all, energy is always exciting, it might not be the sexiest of industries, but it does touch everything like we've talked about. I think being in North America, a reasonably safe jurisdiction is exciting, what's really exciting is that we're a global leader in NGL, NGL production, and actually in liquified natural gas, so LNG as well. Both of those areas are exciting, there's lots of opportunity there, and as a safe source of energy, certainly it's more impactful. As we mentioned, we replaced Russia from an LNG perspective or a gas perspective into the European economy. But also the small EMPs that are operating in the Permian Basin now become more attractive, and certainly companies that can export energy in any way, shape or form, like the large pipelines are becoming more important as well. And so, this conflict is really, I'd say, put a little step in the energy team's feet for sure.

Sean Kenney:

Yeah, yeah. Omar, what about you?

Omar Hashem:

Yeah, I'd agree. I think it's not just the energy team that's excited about energy-

Sean Kenney:

That's true.

Omar Hashem:

... but I think it's a great thing that energy's becoming a greater focal point of everybody, and key decision makers at the political level, and I think especially in the West, where, again, we have a lot of... We're very resource rich, but maybe we're not always capitalizing on that opportunity, and Canada's been a victim of that in terms of not fully taking advantage of the resources that we have. I think we're starting to see that tide shift a little bit in terms of public acceptance, and especially at the political level in terms of decision makers actually becoming more willing to support the energy sector, and I think that's going to create a lot of opportunities and a lot of economic growth for us here. And so, I think, yeah, that has a lot of downstream effects too in terms of who builds the infrastructure and who's producing more, and who's enabling that to happen.

So, I think excited from that perspective. And also I think it expands beyond just oil and gas too, right? I think this all coinciding with the power hungry AI data center build is bringing a lot of other modalities into the conversation too, and we're seeing a lot of support behind nuclear and other things. So, I think it's all the above, it's energy addition, not just transition, and it's really creating an environment of growth and relevance for the energy sector as a whole. So, it's an exciting time.

Sean Kenney:

Yeah, it reminds me of Jude Jason, who I talked to a number of episodes ago, and he covered energy and we were talking more in the context of the AI build out, but he shared similar excitement about it. He said historically it was a slow growth industry, one, 2% growth per year, and it's a very different environment today. So, I would imagine as energy investors, it's an exciting time and keeps you very busy.

Jeff Wakelin:

Yeah. I was just going to say, I was just going to add to Omar's point that we have a very collaborative research process, but it ebbs and flows, and this is ebbing back to where all of the global sector teams are talking about energy, the way that it impacts what they're seeing, what they're doing, and so that makes it a lot more exciting than just sitting in a room thinking about oil reserves and who's got what. So, it's a very exciting time.

Sean Kenney:

Yeah. That's excellent. Well, I want to thank you both for joining. If I'm going to wrap up a few of the key themes that I heard, the first is I really like the Trilemma framework. I know you can't attribute it to yourself, but as an investor thinking through sustainability, affordability, and security, one of the takeaways being clearly that energy security is becoming more prominent, more important, and it's impacting not only geopolitics, but certainly the markets, rates and inflation and credit risk and all those things. So, that's an important takeaway from our perspective. The second, what I heard from you both was just how idiosyncratic this is. There will clearly be winners and losers, there will be some that will win in the short term, some that will win long term, and working through that is not necessarily a straight line.

And maybe the third takeaway related to that is very much a puzzle, right? You're navigating the geopolitics, the potential changes to supply chain that will likely emerge, but we're not sure what that will be. And I have to imagine for you two, sitting on an integrated platform that works cross-channel, cross-region and cross-capital structure is pretty valuable? Yeah.

Jeff Wakelin:

Very much so, yes. Absolutely.

Omar Hashem:

Yeah. Puzzle is a good analogy. I think of it as a maze too, and just you got to rely on some of your teammates sometimes to find your way through that maze, and it's helpful to have the platform for sure.

Jeff Wakelin:

Yeah.

Sean Kenney:

Yeah. That's great. Well, again, thank you both, I'll finish with maybe the most important question, which we're maybe midway through the World Cup right now, we're not... At recording, we're not through the group stage just yet, so I'll caveat that. But what's your World Cup predictions? Omar, I'll start with you. And in full disclosure, Omar is from Toronto and Jeff is from Boston.

Omar Hashem:

That's right. So, you just revealed my bias. I don't have any strong predictions, but on the way here when I was coming down to Boston, the Uber driver was from Cabo Verde, and before the World Cup, I could not tell you where that was on a map, and very excited for them. So, I hope they make it as far as they can, but I don't think they'll go all the way.

Sean Kenney:

They're looking good. Yeah.

Jeff Wakelin:

I think that's a fun story, and I think this is the safest bet I can make since I think we're already through, but hopefully if we at least draw with Turkey tonight that we'll be through for the first time in a number of years, and it looks like we might actually be able to make it in the knockout round a few more matches. So, that'll be quite fun.

Sean Kenney:

Yeah. The US is looking pretty good.

Jeff Wakelin:

Very strong. Yeah.

Sean Kenney:

I'll admit, my wife is Portuguese, her family is very pro-Portugal, of course.

Jeff Wakelin:

Oh boy.

Sean Kenney:

And they're looking pretty good, started out a little rocky, but looking pretty good after game two, so we'll see how they do.

Jeff Wakelin:

Yeah.

Sean Kenney:

But again, thank you both, we really appreciate it, and thank you for tuning into All Angles. If you found this episode helpful, please like and subscribe to All Angles, and until next time, make sure you consider your investment decisions from all angles.

 

 

 

 

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