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Global Markets Outlook

Market Insights: Fed Finds Itself in the Hotel California
Tighter financial conditions are front-running US Federal Reserve policy, limiting its ability to act. Monetary policy remains exceptionally loose globally, while fiscal policy is easier than anticipated. Credit markets have shown signs of stress, but they don’t signal recession, in our view.

Capital Markets View: Second Quarter 2016
A quarterly outlook on regions and asset classes, which is generated from our investment research and informed by our insights into what drives the markets.

Market Quick Points - February 2016
After January’s volatile trading environment, we watch for evidence of renewed US earnings gains and stabilization in China’s economy and global commodity prices that would support our longer-term macro and market outlook.

Market Insights: Separation Anxiety
Everywhere we look — across regions, countries, markets and assets — we see divergence. The US Federal Reserve has started to tighten, while most central banks keep easing. In China, manufacturing continues to falter, though the service sector appears to be faring better. And in the United States, we find industrials and goods producers subsiding, but nonmanufacturing and retail sales expanding.

Capital Markets View: First Quarter 2016
A quarterly outlook on regions and asset classes, which is generated from our investment research and informed by our insights into what drives the markets.

Market Quick Points - October 2015
Financial markets are often viewed as forward-looking. Equities and credit spreads in particular have historically predicted recessions, including some that never happened. Should we be worried about the recent volatility — both down and up — in global markets?

Capital Markets View - 4Q 2015
A quarterly outlook on regions and asset classes, which is generated from our investment research and informed by our insights into what drives the markets.

Market Insights: Like a Bear in a China Shop
The MFS Capital Markets Board considers the first, second and even third order effects of China’s slowdown on global growth and financial markets in the fourth quarter and beyond.

Market Quick Points - September 2015
China has become the center of attention, with each report of bad economic news triggering bouts of market volatility around the world. Though not unusual by historical standards, the recent turbulence was widely perceived to be a warning shot for a future recession. Could this be another global financial crisis in the making?

Investment Insight: Global Markets Hit a Rough Patch - August 2015
The selloff in markets around the world appears to have a variety of catalysts. The two factors that many investors have fixated on are a slowdown in China and the timing of the US Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle.

Market Quick Points - August 2015
The reversal in commodity prices has been one of this summer’s hallmarks. Triggered by a combination of oversupply, weak demand and the stronger US dollar, falling energy prices have put more downward pressure on global gauges of inflation and complicated the task of central bank policymakers. Only the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have talked about raising rates.

Market Quick Points - July 2015
Increased volatility and risk-off trades in the financial markets may persist as long as the Greek debt stalemate continues. Actions by the European Central Bank and other leaders aimed at containing and solving the problem may help to cap the downside.

Market Insights: Are We Really So Unproductive? - Third Quarter 2015
The Capital Markets Board discusses the slowdown in productivity, the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike calculus and global allocations to risky assets.

Market Quick Points - June 2015
A pause in the US dollar/euro rally coincided with a selloff in sovereign bonds and a bounce in the prices of oil and other commodities. If the dollar bull market resumes and the oil rally fades, US Treasury yields can continue to rise on the back of better economic growth. And that largely depends on relative central bank policy.