Decoding Software: Growth, Moats, and the AI Reckoning

History teaches us that governments struggle to rein in liquidity once it’s been unleashed. We’re entering a new paradigm in which tangible fixed investment is replacing financial engineering. In this new environment, the disruption of profit pools may advantage active managers.

In the latest Strategist's Corner, Rob Almeida examines the role of earnings as the primary driver of market performance, contrasting the MSCI EAFE Index's outperformance during 2000-2008 with its lag over the past 15 years due to weaker earnings. Highlights include how economic shifts, including higher spending, input costs, and investment demands, may set the stage for future EAFE outperformance and underscores the importance of focusing on earnings fundamentals amidst changing global conditions to identify market opportunities.

Global Investment Strategist and Portfolio Manager, Rob Almeida, comments on how active management’s underperformance may stem from suppressed market breadth, how suppressed interest rates distorted capital allocations on the economy and how higher costs and increasing market breadth are now creating opportunities for skilled active managers to differentiate themselves.